CHINA 2018 THE JAPAN OF 1941?

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December 7, 1941. In the words of President Franklin Delano Roosevelt, “A date that will live in infamy.” Japan had bombed Pearl Harbor.

There is cause and effect. Every action does have an equal and opposite reaction. Are the U.S. and China on a path similar to that  which led to the Japanese attack?

Examine the facts.

It was December 6, 1941, the day before Pearl Harbor. U.S. intelligence less than adequate. Roosevelt had been told the Japanese fleet was heading for Thailand.

Roosevelt sent a telegram to Emperor Hirohito: “For the sake of humanity” intervene “to prevent further death and destruction in the world.”

Roosevelt amusingly told his wife Eleanor…..”The son of man has just sent his final message to the son of God.”

U.S. intelligence was wrong. Roosevelt relied on the erroneous intelligence. The next day, Hawaii was attacked. Not Thailand.

Why did Japan attack Pearl Harbor? Japan was a non-entity in world affairs in the years leading to 1900. Isolated from the rest of the world.

In 1894 and 1904, Japan successfully engaged in wars against nations considered superior to Japan. During World War I, Japan participated on the side of the Allies.

The Great Depression affected Japan as most nations at the time. Tensions had begun  growing between the U.S. and Japan 10 years earlier. Driven by economic and demographic woes.

Japan invaded Manchuria and other parts of China. The League of Nations condemned the invasion. Japan withdrew from the League as a result.

The Sino-Japanese War began in 1937. Japan acted in an extremely brutal fashion. Perpetrated massacres. Mass killings and rapes.

It was obvious Japan was expanding globally. The U.S. tried to stop Japan’s expansion. The U.S. imposed economic sanctions on Japan, including trade embargoes on aircraft exports, oil, and scrap metal.

In September 1940, Japan signed the Tripartite Pact with Germany and Italy. The U.S. not involved in war with Germany and Italy yet.

The U.S. and Japan negotiated Japan’s expansion, the sanctions, etc. for months. Without success.

The U.S. had hoped the embargoes on oil and other key goods would lead Japan to halt its expansions.

The opposite proved correct. The sanctions and other penalties actually convinced Japan to stand its ground. Stand up for Japan.

Japan became increasingly angered. Thought U.S. conduct a part of Western interference in Asian affairs.

Importantly also, Japan felt the U.S. was not paying Japan the respect to which it was entitled. Japan believed they had earned respect as a world power beginning with the wars surrounding 1900 and its actions into the 1940’s.

Respect/face very important in Asian thinking. Neither was forthcoming from the U.S. There was a failure to recognize the new kid on the block.

Japan realized war was inevitable. Japan recognized the odds were stacked against them in a military confrontation. Success depended on surprise. The target Pearl Harbor. Four thousand miles from Japan’s homeland. The U.S. would not expect it.

Pearl Harbor was perfect. The U.S. fleet, except for carriers, in harbor. The fleet and U.S. morale would be destroyed. There would be no will to fight back.

Japan underestimated the U.S. and its people.

Sanctions a major cause compelling Japan’s decision to attack.

U.S. sanctions in effect today against China. The tariff wars. War, global recession possible. Perhaps imminent.

The issues the same. Overbearing sanctions, the economies of both countries in disarray. Everything moving at a rapid pace.

Trump the creator of the present scenario. His intelligence advise questionable. Where it does exist, he does not pay attention. He refuses to be properly briefed.

An example is Meng Wanzhou who was arrested/detained in Vancouver saturday. At the same time Trump was sitting with China’s President Xi in Buenos Aires.

Meng is CFO of China’s second largest technology company Huawei. Her father founder and a leading Chinese figure.

Huawei has been violating U.S. imposed sanctions by doing business with Iran. The reason Meng was arrested. She is awaiting deportation to New York for a federal court appearance.

Note again she was arrested while Trump and Xi negotiating at the G 20. An embarrassing loss of face for Xi.

The question also arises as to what right the U.S. has to impose penalties on China for doing business with Iran. The Iran problem is between the U.S. and Iran, not the U.S., Iran, and China.

Word is that Trump was unaware Meng was being arrested. John Bolton says Trump did not know and had not been briefed.

Makes one wonder what is going on at the highest levels of U.S. government.

The outcome of any military conflict uncertain. Both nations have nuclear weapons. China considered the world’s second most powerful nation. It may be questionable whether it is behind the U.S. militarily.

In the past five years, China has gone all out improving its military. In excess of 350 new naval vessels constructed with up to date nuclear missile capacity.

China has also constructed islands where none existed in Asian waters. Islands out of nothing. Now airbases with planes and troops stationed thereon.

It makes me question whether the U.S. is still the strongest nation in the world. I would not what to find out the answer.

Similarities exist between the Japan of yesterday and the China of today. Especially as regards each’s relationship at the specific time with the U.S.

Hopefully both the U.S. and China will negotiate their way out of this mess.

We are entering a Don’t Tread On Me situation. Where one side will not take it anymore. Similar to the Boston Tea Party, the Alamo, Pearl Harbor. Not a comfortable time.

WHEN THE GUNS WENT SILENT

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Today is November 11. One hundred years ago this day at precisely 11 am, the guns went silent ending World War I. An armistice had been arrived at.

One hundred years marks a call for major celebration. One is being held in France, the site of the worst fighting during World War I. World leaders present. France has prepared a commemoration.

A five day event. Began yesterday. The glory of the event dampened only by rain and Donald Trump.

The five day event is a Peace Forum also. Beginning tomorrow, three days of discussions involving joining together for mutual protection and climate change.

The first significant event yesterday. A visit to a U.S. Military Cemetery 50 miles outside Paris. The Aisne Marine American Cemetery. Two thousand two hundred eight eight gravesites, mostly American. An additional 1,060 names etched on a wall representing Americans who were missing, their bodies never recovered.

Trump opted not to go. The excuse was the rain caused security and logistical problems. The weather prohibited the use of a helicopter. Trump would have to have been driven.

All world leaders made the 50 mile drive, except for Trump. I wonder if Trump failed to go because of concern for his hair. I am serious. Not being facetious. Recall last week that Trump was caught in a drizzle as he spoke before being flown off somewhere. His precisely appointed hair was altered a bit as a result. He made mention of it the rest of the day.

Trump sent Chief of Staff Kelly and Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Dunford in his place.

The heads of all nations represented by their leaders. Trump sends the second team.

There is criticism Trump did so because he neither understands nor respects history. This was an American cemetery.

Today a similar story re Trump’s obvious disdain for the event. He makes like he does not want to be there. His conduct described as truculent and petulant. He appeared like a grouch to me.

There was a function prior to the actual ceremony commemorating the day. Trump did not attend the event.

Following the function, the world leaders walked to the Arch de Triomphe in a straight line, shoulder to shoulder, all carrying raised black umbrellas. All except for Trump. He rode over.

The commemoration took place at the Arch de Triomphe on the Champs Elysees in Paris. Well done.

No holding back. Europe concerned about Trump. France’s President Macron in his 20 minute speech said, “Nationalism is a betrayal of patriotism.” Aimed right at Trump who a few weeks ago on national television said, “I am a nationalist. There I’ve said it.”

Europe is opposed to nationalism. History recognizes nationalism as the cause of World War I.

The event solemn. No word better describes it.

Mention was made that 100 years ago at 11 in the morning, the bells tolled all over Europe in celebration of the armistice.

There is a feeling that Trump neither knows nor understands history. Nationalism caused World Wars I and II. The League of Nations failed because of nations going their own way.

Patriotism as part of relationships between countries may best be described as love of one nation for another. Nationalism, hatred of one nation for another.

A luncheon followed the event. What happened there not yet reported.

Three more days involved. The Peace Forum. Trump not attending. He leaves Paris this afternoon and returns home. The subject matter of the Forum working together and climate change. Topics Trump not interested in.  Whatever, an insult to the nations remaining.

So much for the commemoration and Trump.

Remained home last night. Watched Syracuse play basketball against Morehead State. Morehead a good team. I was impressed. Syracuse won 84-70.

In spite of the win, Syracuse did not look good. Something I fail to understand. We have 4 3 point shooters. Took few 3 pointers and missed most of them. The team generally drove to the basket. Seemed they did not finish when they did. Could have scored more baskets had they.

Syracuse has 3 point guards. All out with injuries. Have not played yet this season. Could be one of Syracuse’s problems. It’s like having a line man step in for the quarter back.

Boeheim has a deep bench. First time in years. He played it. The bench and starters did not jell. Maybe Syracuse cannot go deep.

Teri Johnston gets sworn in tomorrow morning as Key West Mayor. She has asked my beloved Terri White to sing.

Ernest Hemingway finished A Farewell To Arms the first three weeks he was in Key West. He wrote the last page 39 times before he was satisfied.

My car has been down for a week. I have not gone out during that time. I live one island up from Key West. Could have rented a car or used Uber. Decided instead to remain in and work. The car was my excuse to do some research and writing that was far behind.

Car now working. I feel house bound. Tonight, Louis is out!

Enjoy your Sunday!

 

REPUBLICAN DEBATES

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Pleasure time for Louis last night. The Republican debates. Love politics!

The first debate was scheduled for 5. I had to prepare. Went to Publix and bought all kinds of bad soul satisfying foods. Had to do things in proper fashion. I figured I would be TV bound six hours.

The debates.

Two debates wrong. The first group came over as second class citizens. An insult to those willing to make a run for President. No audience. Moderators inept. Questions bland.

They say Carly Fiorina distinguished herself. The only one to come out of the second class citizen group.

I was not impressed with Florina. I have been watching her the past two weeks. Her TV interviews prior to last night have been terrific. Her attire and hair right on. She also repeated on each occasion two separate canned lines that hit home. One tough woman.

Last night, she pulled a Hillary Clinton. She was different from the person in the earlier interviews. Her hair done differently. Stiff. The easy going smart looking woman drab. Even her suit. Which neither fit the event nor her image. Some sort of bland pink thing. It was not the Carly Fiorina I had come to know.

Everyone this morning is singing her praises. Wow, could she hand it out! They were referring to the two canned responses I had been hearing prior to the debate. No one seems to have picked up that they were canned, not spontaneous.

The second debate, the main event, an altogether different story. Top shelf, first class. The place packed. The moderators tough.

I was impressed with most of the candidates in the second event. The Republicans are fielding a good team of possibilities for 2016. Two should be eliminated from my perspective. Donald Trump and Rand Paul.

I thought Trump had it till last night. He is a buffoon.

Rand Paul not ready for prime time.

The moderators were hard on Trump. Unfairly. He handled matters well, however.

Jeb Bush is being knocked this morning on TV. Why, I do not understand. I thought he gave an impressive performance.

It was after one by the time I got to sleep. I watched the followup shows.

Rick Boettger is a local writer. A journalist. He writes a column weekly for KONK Life as I do. Recently, we have become friends. Rick and Cynthia are good people.

Rick’s column in this week’s KONK Life his last. He told the world he was getting things in order. He has prostate cancer. Finality not imminent. Yet, on the way. Sad the only way to describe the column and Rick’s circumstances.

I was extremely tired yesterday. Unusually so. It may be steroid withdrawal. I had been on steroids for a week. Off, two days. I spoke with a doctor friend. He suggested steroid withdrawal.

This Iran deal mind boggling. I know as much as you. Which is not much. We have to rely on our political leaders and their judgment. I have mentally lined up with those supporting the deal.

I fear if we do not come down on the side of approving the agreement, war in the next five years or so could be inevitable. The scenario reminds me of the League of Nations which the U.S. Senate voted against following World War I.

Enjoy your day!