ELSA…..THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM

For a hurricane/tropical storm no one in Key West seems concerned about, it is getting a lot of play. This is day 3 for me titling the blog with Elsa.

Late yesterday afternoon, I noticed nothing was moving outside. Palm trees and other foliage dead still. No breeze..

The calm before the storm had arrived. A hurricane’s “serene” time.

This morning the same thing. Absolute calm.

There is always a calm before the storm.

It is projected Elsa will arrive this evening or early tomorrow morning. Will arrive as a tropical storm.

The question at the moment is how much of Elsa will arrive? Right over Key West? Or to the west and merely brush against Key West?

The cone has slowly been moving westward the last 3 days. Cuba is breaking up Elsa to an extent. The mountains of Cuba help.

Rain and wind the main concerns.Heavy rain. Wind in the 60 mph range. Supposedly will take 2 hours to pass over Key West.

One problem, however. Hurricanes are fickle. Change direction and velocity constantly. Many times do not in the final analysis travel where projected to go.

Something unusual with the reporting this year.

Hurricanes have been reported over the years by the use of cones and spaghetti models. I have always felt more comfortable with the spaghetti models. More accurate from my perspective.

With Elsa, we are being buried with cones rather than spaghetti models. A cone covers the width and length of the hurricane in one wide and long unit.

From my perspective, the cone is less reliable because it covers the wider track and is therefore lacking in accuracy. A cone can be anywhere from 150-300 miles wide.

The northwest is being destroyed by wildfires. Canada’s wildfires speak to the problem. Presently, 180 wildfires. All at the same time.

The heat wave obviously a cause. An intensive one. Another is lightening. Hard to believe, but Canada sustained 700,000 lightning strikes in the short time frame between June 30 and July 1.

The Keys make up Monroe County. Monroe County is on in years. It is probably one of the senior citizens of counties nationwide. Monroe County is 198 years old.

It is the sixth county of record in Florida. Established by act of the territorial legislature and signed by Governor William Duval July 4, 1823.

The Keys wedding business is back big time. The return has been swift and dramatic.

Wedding planners took a beating during the pandemic. Since the pandemic mellowed, business for some planners is up as much as 35 percent from pre-pandemic numbers.

As far as the pandemic is concerned, the world suddenly changed again. This time in its return to pre-pandemic normalcy. Just like that, the world is not same. Certain businesses, such as wedding planning, have swiftly gone from famine to feast.

Gasoline prices on the move again. In the wrong direction. Upwards. The prices are the highest in 7 years.

Seems not to be of concern to travelers this holiday weekend. They are happy to be able to get out and travel. It is expected that more than 91 percent of those traveling this July 4 weekend will do so by automobile.

It is thought that the Keys will not be affected by the rise. The reason being so many tourists have been traveling to Key West by automobile weeks before others in the country decided to do so. A slight increase is expected, but nothing locals will feel.

The sadness of Surfside.

The remaining portion of Champion Towers South stands no more. It was demolished last night between 10 pm and 3 am.

It had to come down at some point. Elsa accelerated the event. Elsa will hit the Miami area tomorrow. To leave the portion still standing could have resulted in further dangers to life and limb. The decision to bring it down was a wise one.

Donald Rumsfeld died last week at the age of 88. He was considered a skilled bureaucrat. I thought not. Whatever skills he might have had were shown to be wrong. Erroneously thought out.

Rumsfeld was Secretary of Defense during George W. Bush’s supposedly well planned Iraqi war. The one that began 3/20/03 and was considered a victory in a short period of time. A falsehood. The war kept running and running and running.

Rumsfeld time as Secretary of Defense that time ran from 2001-2006.

American soldiers were complaining. Certain machinery was not fit for service in a desert war. One item especially. The Humvee. Soldiers complained its undercover armor was not sufficient to protect against explosive items buried in Iraqi roads.

Soldiers in the fight were actually scavenging for metal to cover the bottom of their war vehicles. Parents at home were complaining to their Congressmen that their children were being killed or losing limbs because the Humvee for example was not designed for desert warfare. Unless the government did something to update them.

Rumsfeld was publicly questioned re the problem. His response was down right stupid: “You go to war with the army you have, not the army you might want or wish to have at a later time.”

One thing wrong in Rumsfeld’s response. The U.S. initiated the war. It had time to be sure all things were in order to protect American soldiers. It was not a sudden war as began with Pearl Harbor.

Simply stated, a country that plans a war should have all its ducks in order before initiating it.

Another consideration was the Iraqi War was ill conceived. It never should have been. Bush was ill advised by certain of his team. The team that made it sound like Iraq had the necessary to make a nuclear bomb, Iraq intended to start a war with the U.S., etc.

Enjoy your day!

4 comments on “ELSA…..THE CALM BEFORE THE STORM

  1. The real problem with Canadian wildfires is that the Canadians are not raking all the dead leaves on the forest floors. If they were taking care of this (better maintenance of their forests) they wouldn’t have this problem.

    • lol, I remember when the entire right wing wacko universe, including a few idiots on this very blog, was trying to make everybody believe that was the cause of all those wild fires last year in California.

      Why do we even listen to them EVER?

      Why do we bother to tolerate those among us who vote them in to positions of power and responsibility?

      How will America ever be great again, if we don’t rid ourselves of these cooks?

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